Determinan Keputusan Konsumsi Rumah Tangga Pada Stimulus Ekonomi 2026
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32670/jim.v17i2.66Abstract
This study aims to analyze the effect of perceived benefits of fiscal stimulus, trust in government, and price expectations on household consumption decisions in the context of the 2026 Economic Stimulus. The study is motivated by the strategic role of household consumption in supporting Indonesia’s economic growth and the increasing use of stimulus policies to maintain household purchasing power. This study applies a quantitative survey approach. The independent variables consist of perceived benefits of fiscal stimulus, trust in government, and price expectations, while the dependent variable is household consumption decisions. The data are analyzed using multiple linear regression through validity testing, reliability testing, classical assumption testing, partial testing, simultaneous testing, and coefficient of determination. Conceptually, household consumption decisions are not only affected by direct fiscal incentives, but also by public perceptions of policy benefits, government credibility, and expected price pressures. The simulated analysis indicates that perceived benefits of fiscal stimulus and trust in government have positive effects on household consumption decisions, while expected price increases have a negative effect. These findings suggest that the effectiveness of economic stimulus requires targeted design, clear policy communication, and stabilization of basic commodity prices.
Keywords: fiscal stimulus, trust in government, price expectations, household consumption.
References
Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50(2), 179–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90020-T
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2026, May 6). Ekonomi Indonesia resilien dan tumbuh solid pada Triwulan 1-2026. https://www.bps.go.id/id/news/2026/05/06/910/ekonomi-indonesia-resilien-dan-tumbuh-solid--pada-triwulan-1-2026.html
Bank Indonesia. (2026, May 5). Ekonomi Indonesia Triwulan I 2026 tumbuh 5,61% (Siaran Pers No. 28/94/DKom). https://www.bi.go.id/id/publikasi/ruang-media/news-release/Pages/sp_289426.aspx
Barro, R. J. (1974). Are government bonds net wealth? Journal of Political Economy, 82(6), 1095–1117. https://doi.org/10.1086/260266
Blanchard, O. (2021). Macroeconomics (8th ed.). Pearson.
Carroll, C. D. (1997). Buffer-stock saving and the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(1), 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555109
Carroll, C. D. (2001). A theory of the consumption function, with and without liquidity constraints. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(3), 23–45. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.3.23
Deaton, A. (1992). Understanding consumption. Oxford University Press.
Deaton, A., & Muellbauer, J. (1980). Economics and consumer behavior. Cambridge University Press.
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., & Startz, R. (2018). Macroeconomics (13th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Feldstein, M. (2009). Rethinking the role of fiscal policy. American Economic Review, 99(2), 556–559. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.2.556
Friedman, M. (1957). A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press.
Ghozali, I. (2021). Aplikasi analisis multivariate dengan program IBM SPSS 26 (10th ed.). Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Hair, J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., & Anderson, R. E. (2019). Multivariate data analysis (8th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Hair, J. F., Hult, G. T. M., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2022). A primer on partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) (3rd ed.). SAGE Publications.
Hall, R. E. (1978). Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence. Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 971–987. https://doi.org/10.1086/260724
Jappelli, T., & Pistaferri, L. (2010). The consumption response to income changes. Annual Review of Economics, 2, 479–506. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.economics.050708.142933
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment, interest and money. Macmillan.
Mankiw, N. G. (2021). Principles of economics (9th ed.). Cengage Learning.
Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data. In K. K. Kurihara (Ed.), Post-Keynesian economics (pp. 388–436). Rutgers University Press.
OECD. (2021). Government at a glance 2021. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/1c258f55-en
OECD. (2022). Building trust to reinforce democracy: Main findings from the 2021 OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions. OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/b407f99c-en
Romer, D. (2019). Advanced macroeconomics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Samuelson, P. A., & Nordhaus, W. D. (2010). Economics (19th ed.). McGraw-Hill Education.
Saputra, B. (2026, June 22). Pemerintah menggelontorkan stimulus ekonomi semester II senilai Rp26,34 T. ANTARA News Kalimantan Selatan. https://kalsel.antaranews.com/berita/523215/pemerintah-menggelontorkan-stimulus-ekonomi-semester-ii-senilai-rp2634-t
Sekaran, U., & Bougie, R. (2016). Research methods for business: A skill-building approach (7th ed.). Wiley.
Sugiyono. (2022). Metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatif, dan R&D. Alfabeta.
Taylor, J. B. (2000). Reassessing discretionary fiscal policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 14(3), 21–36. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.14.3.21
Wooldridge, J. M. (2020). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach (7th ed.). Cengage Learning
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Coopetition : Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
